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March 12, 2010 3:41 p.m. EST

Seems like this was the longest week of the year, especially if you look at it from the standpoint of the U.S. stock market, as I type this only up 11 on the day, is everyone on vacation?

Grains more movement but trade seemed quiet in this sector overall also, other than some pretty good pressure on soybeans this week.  Corn put in 1/2 negatives this week, maybe next week will tell us if corn can resume its uptrend, although it has quite a way to go over head to undo this weeks 1/2 negative to uptrend started in February.  I would still be more agressive about protecting against lower prices.  At the very least cheap puts will still make sense next week as they did this week.  Wheat retracing off contract lows but a lot of damage done this week odds of a resumption of earlier uptrend probably less than 15%.

Corn - some fund selling today, market just can’t shake USDA report and a whole lot of corn is available on planet earth. If May corn has some probability of recovery it would be best if the low of Feb 5, 2010 at 3.59 does not come out, December corn the level is 3.90 3/4.

Wheat - news pretty much the same everyday, “there is enough wheat in the world”.  Funds said to be heavily short, which can mean some sharp up days possibly but most likely these would just be opportunities to sell with more managable risk.  US dollar still relatively strong to other currencies making it tough to move US wheat as readily to foreign buyers.  Leve to change trend even 1/2 way is about 40-45 cents above current price levels.

Soybeans - Got a little initial strength from a USDA typo of a sale of soybeans for 2009-10 and it should have been for 2010-2011, oops!  Wonder if anyone at USDA will have to write a check to cover that typo?  When I make typo’s placing orders ( which are extremely rare thank God!) I get practice signing my name.  Crude Oil struggling putting some pressure on bean oil in terms of bio-diesel.  Funds sellers on the day in the soybean complex.  May soybeans inability to close above 9.26 1/2 not a good sign for upside price strength going into Sunday night trade.

Pat’s probability of overall grain price direction is down.  When markets struggle this hard to go up and stay up they usually don’t have to struggle to go down.  If you need downside price protection remember “Hope” is not a method.

Livestock:  live cattle and feeder cattle continuing uptrend.  Will these markets stay up forever?, no, but don’t think a market cannot stay up long enough until it completely breaks you if you are the wrong way.  Funds large buyers on the day, not entirely surprising to me.  Most funds are technical traders and what they want more than price is direction.  Most of the people who are fund managers truly understand the adage of “strong things get stronger, weak things get weaker”.  Cash markets not real supportive, will cash catch up to future stay tuned next week.

Hogs:   still holding half positive which has been in place for over a month now.  Funds similar to cattle strong buyers on the day.  If 74.15 comes out that would put in a double positive and most likely bring in even more fund buying.  Cash market not as strong as futures today but if it comes in stronger next week, would provide a lot of fodder for hog futures, considering they went up without a lot of news of stronger cash prices today.  US dollar weakness on the day probably helping hogs hold price strength today.

Dairy - bounced off contract lows this week but still has not gone high enough to show me even a 1/2 positive against the major directional down trend going on at the moment.

Have a great weekend,
Patrick Sullivan
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.

Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

 

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Thursday March 11, 2010 3:27 p.m.

Pressure of last weeks chart failures in soybeans proved to have the stronger hand then yesterday’s temporary support from USDA.  Talk of Chinese canceling a load of beans does not add feed to soybean “Bulls”.  Larger Chinese issue is talk of the Chinese “tightening” financial policy, in other word raising their interest rates to slow down their inflation.  Weekly export figures from USDA not providing any upside support today.

Soybeans:  Uptrend from a few weeks ago is off the table.  I don’t think May beans should close below 9.26 1/2.  If they do another “round of down” is highly increased.

Bean oil:  down today in sympathy with soybeans and crude oil.  Bio-diesel tax credit probably helping this markets underlying strenght.

Soymeal: new lows, as the saying goes ” weak things get weaker”.  Thought is the same as yesterday but dirt cheap calls out of the money  with a lot of time if you need upside feed protection, otherwise let your feed prices get cheaper.  Always remember the best way to fight is never having to go to battle.

Wheat: still weak, not a lot to say other than “Hope is in God” not the price of wheat.

US dollar still trading with a limp from its half negative to charts about a week ago.  However, 1/2 negative positions can heal themselves and uptrends can resume. At the moment US dollar seems like it is trying to heal to come back to the uptrending battle, if it can resume the uptrend that will keep the downtrend pressure on grains, especially coupled with large world supplies.

Feeder and Fat cattle trend is still up.  One would think a retracement of so much uptrending strength would be in order but it does not mean it has to.  Cattle probably look towards tomorrow’s cash market to see if cash cattle trade higher, if so futures probably won’t retrace much or at all for that matter.  Hogs, cash a little softer, futures finally breathing a little bit of month long trendup.  Hog market a little unusual that it has gone for so long the last month on a what I call a single half positive.

Milk tank:  retracing from contract lows on front month but for me still not enough to take the yellow flags off the race course in the market it is always better to take the attitude “trust but verify”.

Gotta get the kids of to some sports stuff so you be spared more of my typing.

Have a good evening.
Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

 

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Wednesday March 10, 5:22 p.m. EST

Well not only does the market make my opinions look ill-founded at times, mother nature also reminding me that I am just a mere human based on my  comments from a few weeks ago of ” I think winter is going to last until the very first day of spring March 21st.  Based on today’s weather it looks like winter will be distant memory until next year.  However, March is not over and so far this March came in like a lamb rather than a lion, maybe March 2010 goes out like a lion?

Grains:  USDA report was bearish to corn and wheat.  USDA report reduced 2009 crop only slightly and this led to an increase in projected corn stocks.  Wheat carryout number in USDA report really weighing on wheat market, weak demand also not helping buoy prices. USDA raised its wheat ending stocks to 1 billion a 22 year high.  Soybean got a little support from USDA revising ending soybean stocks down a bit.  Some fund buying activity in beans today, if they are initiating new positions I am not sure what they are seeing in the upside at the moment.

Price Behaviors:

Corn: Front months put in 1/2 negatives to trend today.  May corn taking out 3.65 and July 3.75 3/4 not constructive to uptrending price behavior, full negative not in place in these months but this type of price action warrants at least cheap puts especially going into March 30 planting intentions and grain stocks report.  December corn also succumbing to USDA report and weaker on the day at 3.94 3/4.

Wheat:  Full negative price behaviors of last week continuing to exert their momentum pressure they started last week to the downside.  USDA providing the downward fuel today.  July wheat did not take out its low of 4.91 from February 2nd of 4.91, however wheat is a market in which it is probably better to be agressive on the sell side and hope your wrong.

Soybeans:  Got a little strength from USDA numbers.  However, I don’t trust soybean chart to the upside from price behavior of last two weeks.  Risk of selling is 9.71 1/2 from March 3rd overhead in the May contract.

Soymeal: also in downtrending position.  If you are feeding soymeal cheap calls, are the best brake in case trend changes aprubtly.

Bean oil: near term trend up, maybe getting support from crude oil

US dollar still in 1/2 negative position, if it would resume a downtrend might help grains.  A lot of fundamental factors weighing on US grain along with recent price behavior warrant serious consideration of how you are going to protect your grain prices for this years crop.

Cattle and Feeder cattle under some pressure today, but no chart damage to uptrend yet.  Both markets under some pressure today as cash market was indicating to struggle with paying asking prices of 94-95 on fats.  Goldman roll (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) will be coming into view pretty soon and typically can put some pressure on front month as those positions are moved in June cattle etc.

Hogs:  Still in 1/2 positive position ( they have been this way for about a month). Chart behavior did nothing to change 1/2 positive uptrend position today.  Goldman Roll a factor here also.  Resumption of pork exports to Russia also an underlying positive.

Milk Tank:  New contract lows on front months warrants overall continuation of keeping your foot on the “brakes”, in other payup to protect the bottom side.  Although fronts did not close near today’s lows they need to do a lot more to really change the downtrend.  Back month milk holding together a little better but with fronts struggling don’t count on the backs to pull the front months up.

Patrick’s Ponder:  The key to success is the management of your market risk, not your ability to outguess exactly where the market is going to go.

Have a good Wednesday evening,
Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Tuesday March 9m 2010 3:47 p.m. EST

Overall markets still relatively quiet today.  Stock market very flat, US dollar up slightly. Grains a bit more activity today, most likely some “squaring up” of positions ahead of USDA crop production and supply and demand out tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST. 

Corn:  Front months May and July still holding together although a little to close for comfort to putting in 1/2 negative against uptrend.  December struggling after yesterdays 1/2 negative to its individual daily chart.  However, if front months refuse to break it may help keep December from putting in full negative on its daily chart. Anticipation is USDA is not going to change corn numbers much from January report.  To my knowledge the recount of corn is not including the Dakota’s, USDA indicating that will be done “down the road” at some future date not yet released.  Bigger report will be Prosepctive Plantings, Grain Stocks at the end of the month.  Will warmer weather also start bringing some more corn to town (especially corn that has vamotoxin issues?), may not turn corn into a downtrend but make it fight for every 1/4 cent up.  Tomorrow’s report is anticipated to be bearish.  However, corn has dropped a pretty good amount since last weeks highs.  So possibly when the report comes out the market might say “this has been factored in already”.  And since of course I nor does anyone else no specifically what a market is going to do God willing I wake up tomorrow to be here all over again and find out.

Soybeans:  Retracing some of last weeks negative price chart behavior and similar to corn “position squaring” ahead of the USDA report.  Market participants probably trying lower positions a little to not take a “full load on the boat” through the report, “better to lighten the boat in case you have to live through the storm, one can always reload the boat but not when it is at the bottom of the ocean”.

Wheat:  Last weeks chart behavior has really put in wheat in struggle mode.  Coupling the negative chart behavior corn and beans struggling along with worldwide burdensome supplies and Egypt usually a good buyer of US wheat looking to the Black Sea region and Europe does not equal price strength.  Hopefully I am wrong but I think if one has wheat to sell you need to be very defensive against lower prices. 

Livestock:  Cattle and Feeder trend still up, although healthy retracement wouldn’t be out of place.  Market has to drop a really long way at the moment to change uptrend.  Antcipation of fat cattle prices holding steady to strong into this week, buoying futures.  Feeders probably finding a little upside bias support from weaker corn prices.  Obama had lunch with some CEO’s at the Whitehouse today one was Jim Skinner of McDonald’s maybe the cattle market likes that kind of lunch?  Wonder if they had Big Mac’s like the rest of us?

Hogs overall chart still leaning up, however break of 1.00 would not be that unusual.  Cash hogs a little weaker today, bringing pressure to futures.

Milk tank:  Milk down a bit on the day.  Cheese trading at 126.00 hi, 125.00 lo and settling unchanged at 125.00.  Hopefully the fact that cheese did not “tank” today maybe a “light” at the end of the tunnel for milk?  However, I don’t know if that light is bright enough yet to take your foot of the price downtrend.  Current chart behavior still not enough in my world of price behavior analysis to say downtrend has changed agressive protection still making sense.

Have a Great Tuesday Evening,
Patrick Sullivan
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Monday March 8, 2010

Little hectic last Friday and over the weekend, my kids keep me hopping.

On to today’s market.  Overall markets very quiet today.  Soybeans recovering some of last Wednesdays losses, but would need to go substantially higher to undo last weeks chart damage to front months.  Corn still held together on front months from a price chart standpoint.  December corn however put in 1/2 a negative today.  Wheat did not put in a full negative today, however, one probably does not want to see todays low of 4.92 come out 1st.  Anticipation of this weeks crop production report to indicate there is pretty much enough of everything ( i.e. grain) available in the world at the moment.  From a chart standpoint of markets which could get some upside still corn would be 1st, wheat 2nd and soybeans a distant 3rd. 

Talk of Argentina with a large corn crop coming at the moment.  Also anticipation of pretty large carry over stocks going into 2010/2011 could continue to keep making upside strength in corn just grind out the strength.  When markets really have to struggle to go up you better be awfully, awfully careful about that given market’s ability to go down.

Cattle, April contact up 1.25, speaks for itself trend is up, consumer has not reached breaking point.  Hogs giving up a little ground would not be surprising to see hog market breathe a little after about a month of running up with little pull back at all, 71.00 April hogs would not be surprising, however like always it does not mean it has to.  If last weeks high comes out, high probability hogs will make new contract highs.

Dairy - Trend is still down, and agressive protection continues to be warranted.

Heard a saying on the radio today which I think is prudent

“Hedge when you can not when you need to”

in other word don’t call your car insurance agent as you sliding out of control.

Have a Great Lakes Monday evening,
Patrick Sullivan
800.359.1435
http://www.gltc.com

 Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

 

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Thursday March 4, 2010 3:41 p.m.

Pretty good move down in soybeans today.  US stock market a little quiet ahead of tomorrow’s unemployment report.  US dollar gaining back some of 1/2 negative yesterday against Euro-currency as Greece situation grows.  Greek prime minister I think went to Germany today probably going to have to give up some Greek sovereignty if he wants to hold his country together.  I am sure the deal would not say anything about sovereignty but typically if one is negotiating from a weaker position it is rare that the other party will not want certain demands.  The only entity that I know of that accepts us humans without expecting repayment is God.  Regretably Greece is an example of what happens when governments spend beyond what the citizenry can produce. 

On to today’s market price behavior.  Grains down across the board today.

Soybeans:  May contract has put in full negative today.  Last week 1/2 positive got put in only to have a full negative come in a few days later.   Great concern is that soybeans coming into the begining of this year were in a pretty solid downtrend.  To have a slight recovery thow in a full negative so quickly does not bode well and may precipitate the down trend engine to restart, especially knowing there are a lot of soybeans in this year’s South American harvest. Slow export numbers today did not help beans either.  November soybeans did not put in 2nd negative but with fronts struggling that could put a lot of pressure on back month soybeans.

Corn:  nothing has been hurt yet on the upside strength in chart.  Looking if low from March 2nd can hold might be able to keep corn leaning up.  Real world issues continue to be the same, concern on favorable planting weather, some US dollar strength today, sluggish exports today  etc., wheat probably providing some sympathy downward price pressure today.

Wheat:  Uptrend chart pattern not hurt by today.  However, isolated low level on May wheat has moved up, 4.96 1/4 is the level I would not like to see broken going forward.  Export sales slow today, US dollar strength, large world supplies, US wheat relatively expensive to the rest of the world, winter wheat conditions in U.S. southern plains not bringing in fear factor to drive upside.  Regretably in general for commodities to go up “bad” things need to be happening the world, i.e. natural disasters in growing areas, our US dollar becoming “Kleenex” etc.

Livestock:  cattle, hogs, trend still up, cash prices still strong, however, there will come a point at the grocery store when Spam becomes the better alternative.  Cheap puts probably still in order to try and let upside run if it want to. 

Dairy:  Another new contract low, so my comments regretably from the milking cows standpoint continue to be the same as they have been for quite a few weeks now, agressively protect the downside because milk market still not indicating downtrend train wants to change.  Cheese lower again today, better agressively protect that milk tank or the dairy milk market will be draining your dollars on the way to the processor
Pat Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.

Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

 

 

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March 3, 2010 4:50 p.m. EST

US Dollar put in 1/2 a negative to uptrend today, full negative could evolve if March US dollar takes out 79.61.  US government still pushing for projects which it does not have the money.  I think our “leaders” need to get out of their buildings off the concrete and back on to God made solid black earth and rediscover common sense.  Gold, and Crude now also have double positives indicating uptrends seem to be resurrected.  If US government keeps up spending it could reignite inflation monster again.  Charts right now do not indicate an imminent upside price explosion but they are starting to show signs of price inflation coming back.  Greece indicating they will take drastic measures to get debt under control, if they don’t Greece might be a country in name only in my opinion, in other words whoever bails them out basically controls them for the future.  It is rare that in a situation as what Greece finds itself in, that if they get help they do not give up some portion of Greece to the entity who bails them out.

Corn showing strength again today.  Continued concerns about weather staying in the news.  Still alot of corn to sell so the upside strength looks similar as a few days ago a slow grind higher.

Soybeans - still 1/2 positive in place, need to take out 9.85 for full positive.  Basically from what I read conditions in South America still favorable and large bean crop highly probable.

Wheat - chart not hurt between Monday’s large move, and Tuesday’s smaller move.  4.96 1/2 lo on May wheat from Monday may evolve as a price level which matters.

Livestock - Cattle, Feeders and hogs all price behavior on charts indicating up.  Monthly hog chart has also done some positive behavior recently which may indicate strength to last longer.  Pork being allowed for export to Russia probably a good price booster today.  Cash cattle trade at a standstill today but futures still holding together, Lent has not seemed to phase cattle market much this year.

Dairy holding together but still out of the woods yet, recent price behavior has a whole lot of work to do to indicate it is really going to get back in an uptrend again.  Remember, milk prices will trend up again, nothing stays the same forever.  But always remember my standard answer to people who ask me ” how long can it (the price of any commodity) stay down (or up)?”, and my answer is always “till your broke”.  So do not get yourself into that kind of position where you find yourself asking the question “how long”.

Thanks for reading.

Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Tuesday March 2, 2010 6:01 p.m.

Late post today so I have to be quick.

Grains everything is the same basic near term trend is up, in spite of decent sized pullbacks yesterday.

Livestock - near term trends still up, hogs could be vulnerable to decent pullback.  Also hogs still only have 1/2 positive on chart, need to make new contract high at this point to put full positive in. If yesterdays high ends up as an isolated high and gets taken out a few days from now that would also put in full positive will try to keep you abreast of hog price behavior.  Cattle and Feeders trend is up.

Milk bouncing to the upside but not enough to show a potential change from down trend price behavior, not a time to take your foot of the brake if your milking cows.

US dollar backing off a little today but not enough to damage uptrend, basically it is a lesser “evil” the eurocurrency right now.  However, if 80.14 comes out on March would put in 1/2 negative to US dollar.
Pat Sullivan
Great Lakes
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Monday March 1st, 2010 4:35 p.m.

Trading looked like it would shape up to be relatively quiet possibly this week and first part of next week with USDA monthly Crop Production and Supply/Demand report out a week from this coming Wednesday.  However, wheat was a big mover on the day and it looked like the low from February 19 of 5.04 1/2 on July 19 was going to come out but it didn’t.  Also today’s high on the July wheat took out the hight of 5.36 from February 6 of 5.36 by just 3 ticks, which is not alot but if the market did not have overall underlying strength why was it able to get to 5.36 3/4 on the July wheat today?

Corn backing off some today but corn market would have to drop a pretty long way to negate nerm term uptrend going on. 

Soybeans still in position of 1/2 positive if last weeks highs come out on soybean that would put in a double positive.

Real world influences today:  talk about wet weather in Brazil slowing harvest, nervousness about next weeks USDA report starting to set in already,  cash beans also a little weaker today.

US dollar strength influencing grain weakness today.  However, appearently US dollar does not have enough influence to really drop the “hammer” on grains.  Some fund selling in corn and wheat today.

A farmer told me there is some talk that meteorologists are thinking this planting season may be the same as last year ( let’s hope they are wrong), and with last year not a distant memory quite yet we all know what happened.

Trends are all up in livestock.  Cash hogs helping today’s futures market. Cash Cattle and Feeders steady to strong markets also pulling futures higher.  Maybe we are starting to see the effects of herd and hog liquidation that to my knowledge has been going on for about the last 2 to 3 years?

Milk - New contract lows, cheese steady.  However, market is still indicating downside protection needs to be taken just in case these new lows come out and another set of new lows potentially happens.

If this blog helps you and you would like further information etc., please visit my website: http://www.gltc.com

Have a good evening,
Patrick Sullivan
President
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Friday February 26, 4:48 p.m EST

Last day of February, kind of unusual for the last day of the month to end on a Friday.  This means continuation charts will pick up with Monday being March 1st and it makes these types of charts even cleaner.  Whether or not this situation helps give greater probability intrepretation to price behavior I don’t think will ever be answsered but it does make it easier going from one month to the next on the charts.

Overall Pat picture, grains especially corn and wheat continue to be in general position of upside strength which has basically been the story all week and looks like it will continue into next week. Most likely weather issues of potential delayed planting starting to creep into market psychology.  Strength of US dollar probably keep any grain strength under a more controlled upward climb if the uptrend of this week continues.  US dollar strength probably due to a variety of factors.  Main factor is probably it is a lesser “evil” than Euro right now which has been under assault because of the Greece and other EU countries debt problems.

Soybeans put in 1/2 positive this week, need to take out this weeks high’s, for example May soybeans need to take out 9.85 to put in full positive, to increase odds of even better retracement.

Always remember the key to success in markets is not necessarily determining exactly where they are going to go but rather the general directional trend and then asking the question where should prices not go if a given trend is still up or down.  As I am sure you all know you do not want to control higher yields from your ground, however, you do want to control the costs of the inputs which go into your land and crops and harvesting.  Bottom line the main “things” we can control are when a given “something (whatever it might be”, goes against us.  So although grains are showing some strength now do not take for granite this trend will continue clear until this fall, at the very least determine how to protect the bottom side of prices just in case they don’t go as far as you would like to forward sell cash, futures etc. 

Fat cattle, feeder cattle, hogs trending up still.  Hogs a pretty good turn around from a few weeks ago which at that time for me they were not a good uptrend. Wholesale pork prices showing good gains in February, maybe helping futures on the upside?  Cash fat cattle showing decent strength this week also translating into helping futures maintain uptrend.

Dairy - milk futures up slightly on the day but by no means showing a bottoming price pattern to me yet.  Cheese lower again today.  Agressive price protection probably not illogical at this point.

Have a great weekend,
Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

 

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