Overall markets still relatively quiet today.  Stock market very flat, US dollar up slightly. Grains a bit more activity today, most likely some “squaring up” of positions ahead of USDA crop production and supply and demand out tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST. 

Corn:  Front months May and July still holding together although a little to close for comfort to putting in 1/2 negative against uptrend.  December struggling after yesterdays 1/2 negative to its individual daily chart.  However, if front months refuse to break it may help keep December from putting in full negative on its daily chart. Anticipation is USDA is not going to change corn numbers much from January report.  To my knowledge the recount of corn is not including the Dakota’s, USDA indicating that will be done “down the road” at some future date not yet released.  Bigger report will be Prosepctive Plantings, Grain Stocks at the end of the month.  Will warmer weather also start bringing some more corn to town (especially corn that has vamotoxin issues?), may not turn corn into a downtrend but make it fight for every 1/4 cent up.  Tomorrow’s report is anticipated to be bearish.  However, corn has dropped a pretty good amount since last weeks highs.  So possibly when the report comes out the market might say “this has been factored in already”.  And since of course I nor does anyone else no specifically what a market is going to do God willing I wake up tomorrow to be here all over again and find out.

Soybeans:  Retracing some of last weeks negative price chart behavior and similar to corn “position squaring” ahead of the USDA report.  Market participants probably trying lower positions a little to not take a “full load on the boat” through the report, “better to lighten the boat in case you have to live through the storm, one can always reload the boat but not when it is at the bottom of the ocean”.

Wheat:  Last weeks chart behavior has really put in wheat in struggle mode.  Coupling the negative chart behavior corn and beans struggling along with worldwide burdensome supplies and Egypt usually a good buyer of US wheat looking to the Black Sea region and Europe does not equal price strength.  Hopefully I am wrong but I think if one has wheat to sell you need to be very defensive against lower prices. 

Livestock:  Cattle and Feeder trend still up, although healthy retracement wouldn’t be out of place.  Market has to drop a really long way at the moment to change uptrend.  Antcipation of fat cattle prices holding steady to strong into this week, buoying futures.  Feeders probably finding a little upside bias support from weaker corn prices.  Obama had lunch with some CEO’s at the Whitehouse today one was Jim Skinner of McDonald’s maybe the cattle market likes that kind of lunch?  Wonder if they had Big Mac’s like the rest of us?

Hogs overall chart still leaning up, however break of 1.00 would not be that unusual.  Cash hogs a little weaker today, bringing pressure to futures.

Milk tank:  Milk down a bit on the day.  Cheese trading at 126.00 hi, 125.00 lo and settling unchanged at 125.00.  Hopefully the fact that cheese did not “tank” today maybe a “light” at the end of the tunnel for milk?  However, I don’t know if that light is bright enough yet to take your foot of the price downtrend.  Current chart behavior still not enough in my world of price behavior analysis to say downtrend has changed agressive protection still making sense.

Have a Great Tuesday Evening,
Patrick Sullivan
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Little hectic last Friday and over the weekend, my kids keep me hopping.

On to today’s market.  Overall markets very quiet today.  Soybeans recovering some of last Wednesdays losses, but would need to go substantially higher to undo last weeks chart damage to front months.  Corn still held together on front months from a price chart standpoint.  December corn however put in 1/2 a negative today.  Wheat did not put in a full negative today, however, one probably does not want to see todays low of 4.92 come out 1st.  Anticipation of this weeks crop production report to indicate there is pretty much enough of everything ( i.e. grain) available in the world at the moment.  From a chart standpoint of markets which could get some upside still corn would be 1st, wheat 2nd and soybeans a distant 3rd. 

Talk of Argentina with a large corn crop coming at the moment.  Also anticipation of pretty large carry over stocks going into 2010/2011 could continue to keep making upside strength in corn just grind out the strength.  When markets really have to struggle to go up you better be awfully, awfully careful about that given market’s ability to go down.

Cattle, April contact up 1.25, speaks for itself trend is up, consumer has not reached breaking point.  Hogs giving up a little ground would not be surprising to see hog market breathe a little after about a month of running up with little pull back at all, 71.00 April hogs would not be surprising, however like always it does not mean it has to.  If last weeks high comes out, high probability hogs will make new contract highs.

Dairy - Trend is still down, and agressive protection continues to be warranted.

Heard a saying on the radio today which I think is prudent

“Hedge when you can not when you need to”

in other word don’t call your car insurance agent as you sliding out of control.

Have a Great Lakes Monday evening,
Patrick Sullivan
800.359.1435
http://www.gltc.com

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Pretty good move down in soybeans today.  US stock market a little quiet ahead of tomorrow’s unemployment report.  US dollar gaining back some of 1/2 negative yesterday against Euro-currency as Greece situation grows.  Greek prime minister I think went to Germany today probably going to have to give up some Greek sovereignty if he wants to hold his country together.  I am sure the deal would not say anything about sovereignty but typically if one is negotiating from a weaker position it is rare that the other party will not want certain demands.  The only entity that I know of that accepts us humans without expecting repayment is God.  Regretably Greece is an example of what happens when governments spend beyond what the citizenry can produce. 

On to today’s market price behavior.  Grains down across the board today.

Soybeans:  May contract has put in full negative today.  Last week 1/2 positive got put in only to have a full negative come in a few days later.   Great concern is that soybeans coming into the begining of this year were in a pretty solid downtrend.  To have a slight recovery thow in a full negative so quickly does not bode well and may precipitate the down trend engine to restart, especially knowing there are a lot of soybeans in this year’s South American harvest. Slow export numbers today did not help beans either.  November soybeans did not put in 2nd negative but with fronts struggling that could put a lot of pressure on back month soybeans.

Corn:  nothing has been hurt yet on the upside strength in chart.  Looking if low from March 2nd can hold might be able to keep corn leaning up.  Real world issues continue to be the same, concern on favorable planting weather, some US dollar strength today, sluggish exports today  etc., wheat probably providing some sympathy downward price pressure today.

Wheat:  Uptrend chart pattern not hurt by today.  However, isolated low level on May wheat has moved up, 4.96 1/4 is the level I would not like to see broken going forward.  Export sales slow today, US dollar strength, large world supplies, US wheat relatively expensive to the rest of the world, winter wheat conditions in U.S. southern plains not bringing in fear factor to drive upside.  Regretably in general for commodities to go up “bad” things need to be happening the world, i.e. natural disasters in growing areas, our US dollar becoming “Kleenex” etc.

Livestock:  cattle, hogs, trend still up, cash prices still strong, however, there will come a point at the grocery store when Spam becomes the better alternative.  Cheap puts probably still in order to try and let upside run if it want to. 

Dairy:  Another new contract low, so my comments regretably from the milking cows standpoint continue to be the same as they have been for quite a few weeks now, agressively protect the downside because milk market still not indicating downtrend train wants to change.  Cheese lower again today, better agressively protect that milk tank or the dairy milk market will be draining your dollars on the way to the processor
Pat Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435

Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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US Dollar put in 1/2 a negative to uptrend today, full negative could evolve if March US dollar takes out 79.61.  US government still pushing for projects which it does not have the money.  I think our “leaders” need to get out of their buildings off the concrete and back on to God made solid black earth and rediscover common sense.  Gold, and Crude now also have double positives indicating uptrends seem to be resurrected.  If US government keeps up spending it could reignite inflation monster again.  Charts right now do not indicate an imminent upside price explosion but they are starting to show signs of price inflation coming back.  Greece indicating they will take drastic measures to get debt under control, if they don’t Greece might be a country in name only in my opinion, in other words whoever bails them out basically controls them for the future.  It is rare that in a situation as what Greece finds itself in, that if they get help they do not give up some portion of Greece to the entity who bails them out.

Corn showing strength again today.  Continued concerns about weather staying in the news.  Still alot of corn to sell so the upside strength looks similar as a few days ago a slow grind higher.

Soybeans - still 1/2 positive in place, need to take out 9.85 for full positive.  Basically from what I read conditions in South America still favorable and large bean crop highly probable.

Wheat - chart not hurt between Monday’s large move, and Tuesday’s smaller move.  4.96 1/2 lo on May wheat from Monday may evolve as a price level which matters.

Livestock - Cattle, Feeders and hogs all price behavior on charts indicating up.  Monthly hog chart has also done some positive behavior recently which may indicate strength to last longer.  Pork being allowed for export to Russia probably a good price booster today.  Cash cattle trade at a standstill today but futures still holding together, Lent has not seemed to phase cattle market much this year.

Dairy holding together but still out of the woods yet, recent price behavior has a whole lot of work to do to indicate it is really going to get back in an uptrend again.  Remember, milk prices will trend up again, nothing stays the same forever.  But always remember my standard answer to people who ask me ” how long can it (the price of any commodity) stay down (or up)?”, and my answer is always “till your broke”.  So do not get yourself into that kind of position where you find yourself asking the question “how long”.

Thanks for reading.

Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Late post today so I have to be quick.

Grains everything is the same basic near term trend is up, in spite of decent sized pullbacks yesterday.

Livestock - near term trends still up, hogs could be vulnerable to decent pullback.  Also hogs still only have 1/2 positive on chart, need to make new contract high at this point to put full positive in. If yesterdays high ends up as an isolated high and gets taken out a few days from now that would also put in full positive will try to keep you abreast of hog price behavior.  Cattle and Feeders trend is up.

Milk bouncing to the upside but not enough to show a potential change from down trend price behavior, not a time to take your foot of the brake if your milking cows.

US dollar backing off a little today but not enough to damage uptrend, basically it is a lesser “evil” the eurocurrency right now.  However, if 80.14 comes out on March would put in 1/2 negative to US dollar.
Pat Sullivan
Great Lakes
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Trading looked like it would shape up to be relatively quiet possibly this week and first part of next week with USDA monthly Crop Production and Supply/Demand report out a week from this coming Wednesday.  However, wheat was a big mover on the day and it looked like the low from February 19 of 5.04 1/2 on July 19 was going to come out but it didn’t.  Also today’s high on the July wheat took out the hight of 5.36 from February 6 of 5.36 by just 3 ticks, which is not alot but if the market did not have overall underlying strength why was it able to get to 5.36 3/4 on the July wheat today?

Corn backing off some today but corn market would have to drop a pretty long way to negate nerm term uptrend going on. 

Soybeans still in position of 1/2 positive if last weeks highs come out on soybean that would put in a double positive.

Real world influences today:  talk about wet weather in Brazil slowing harvest, nervousness about next weeks USDA report starting to set in already,  cash beans also a little weaker today.

US dollar strength influencing grain weakness today.  However, appearently US dollar does not have enough influence to really drop the “hammer” on grains.  Some fund selling in corn and wheat today.

A farmer told me there is some talk that meteorologists are thinking this planting season may be the same as last year ( let’s hope they are wrong), and with last year not a distant memory quite yet we all know what happened.

Trends are all up in livestock.  Cash hogs helping today’s futures market. Cash Cattle and Feeders steady to strong markets also pulling futures higher.  Maybe we are starting to see the effects of herd and hog liquidation that to my knowledge has been going on for about the last 2 to 3 years?

Milk - New contract lows, cheese steady.  However, market is still indicating downside protection needs to be taken just in case these new lows come out and another set of new lows potentially happens.

If this blog helps you and you would like further information etc., please visit my website: http://www.gltc.com

Have a good evening,
Patrick Sullivan
President
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Last day of February, kind of unusual for the last day of the month to end on a Friday.  This means continuation charts will pick up with Monday being March 1st and it makes these types of charts even cleaner.  Whether or not this situation helps give greater probability intrepretation to price behavior I don’t think will ever be answsered but it does make it easier going from one month to the next on the charts.

Overall Pat picture, grains especially corn and wheat continue to be in general position of upside strength which has basically been the story all week and looks like it will continue into next week. Most likely weather issues of potential delayed planting starting to creep into market psychology.  Strength of US dollar probably keep any grain strength under a more controlled upward climb if the uptrend of this week continues.  US dollar strength probably due to a variety of factors.  Main factor is probably it is a lesser “evil” than Euro right now which has been under assault because of the Greece and other EU countries debt problems.

Soybeans put in 1/2 positive this week, need to take out this weeks high’s, for example May soybeans need to take out 9.85 to put in full positive, to increase odds of even better retracement.

Always remember the key to success in markets is not necessarily determining exactly where they are going to go but rather the general directional trend and then asking the question where should prices not go if a given trend is still up or down.  As I am sure you all know you do not want to control higher yields from your ground, however, you do want to control the costs of the inputs which go into your land and crops and harvesting.  Bottom line the main “things” we can control are when a given “something (whatever it might be”, goes against us.  So although grains are showing some strength now do not take for granite this trend will continue clear until this fall, at the very least determine how to protect the bottom side of prices just in case they don’t go as far as you would like to forward sell cash, futures etc. 

Fat cattle, feeder cattle, hogs trending up still.  Hogs a pretty good turn around from a few weeks ago which at that time for me they were not a good uptrend. Wholesale pork prices showing good gains in February, maybe helping futures on the upside?  Cash fat cattle showing decent strength this week also translating into helping futures maintain uptrend.

Dairy - milk futures up slightly on the day but by no means showing a bottoming price pattern to me yet.  Cheese lower again today.  Agressive price protection probably not illogical at this point.

Have a great weekend,
Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Winter seems like it is going to go clear till its calendar end date of the 21st of March.  Maybe weather psychology of planting delays already starting to creep in?

Not a large news day today.  Prices in grains technically held together.  I think most likely as long as lows from last week don’t come out grains have the opportunity to grind out a larger upside retracement of the large down move from the USDA report in January.

Talk of China buying beans out of South America was supportive.  Some indication of decent demand for soymeal. Corn getting some strength from crude oil, talk of vomitoxin in southwestern Ohio, adding to reasons for upside.

Kansas City wheat and Minneapolis wheat showing some technical signs of weakness in last several days, yellow caution flag is out.

Also interesting to note that grains are able to rally in spite of recent strength of US dollar.  However, if US dollar strength remains and if grains go higher there will come a point where US grains could just be too expensive if the US dollar strength remains at that point in time.

Cattle, Feeders and hogs:  price behavior still leaning more up than down in near term.

Dairy - price behavior still down, plus cheese lower again today as the Duke would say ” Katie bar the door”.

Fed man Bernanke indicating he would keep a lid on interest rates at his testimony to the Congressional committee today. I wonder how much it costs us taxpayers for Congress to grill various officials, would it not be much easier to just ask Mr. Bernanke the main question about interest rates be done with the “meeting” in 5 minutes and then move on and let US taxpayers keep their money and so they can do REAL work instead of the government doing “make work”.

Talk without “do” means nothing.

Patrick Sullivan
President
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Grains peeled back some of yesterday’s relatively large gains.  Argentina continuing to indicate record soybean crop this year.  Talk of US commercial grain inventories down a bit last week. 

Soybeans did put in 1/2 a positive today in spite of lower close from my viewpoint of price behavior, will it be enough to get something started for a better retracement of the January USDA report?  Most likely if soybeans can keep from taking out lows from last Friday it might be able to get something going.  In the face of a large South American crop it is hard to see how but if markets always did what we thought then humans would never have to work.

Corn and wheat down today but again in Pat’s world no chart damage has been done.  Most likely similar to soybeans for strength to stay it would be best for last Friday’s low to hold.

I have forgetten about the US dollar past couple of posts.  US dollar is still in a strong uptrend in the near term and this could make US grains work for every quarter of a cent they can pull out to the upside.  However, if supply pressure etc., weigh too much on US grains and price charts start to fall apart underneath , the value of the US dollar will act most likely put a lot of down pressure on grains.

Milk - pretty good run to the upside today but couldn’t hold price strength on close.  Downside is still a big risk.  Lower cheese price not helping either.

Cattle and hogs down but no damage to chart strength.

Pat Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Just another day but today my youngest son turns 12 which means I am getting a lot older, so if I am becoming more opinionated now you know why.

Grains getting some more strength today off of technical strength in charts as well as a stronger cash market reported at the Gulf of Mexico.

Corn - has put in a double positive for me.  I don’t see it “running to the moon” but maybe it will get some upside “stick-ability” now, a .25-.30 run I don’t think is to much of a stretch.  March is just around the corner and it does not look like winter wants to let go anytime soon. Heavy rains in South America bringing some concerns about corn down there.

Wheat - price chart still looking fairly constructive to upside.  If May wheat can take out 5.23 1/4 that would put a full positive in place and maybe get wheat to push a bit more to the upside. 

Soybeans - holding chart together, still has not put in 1/2 positive.  However, if last weeks high comes out 1st of 9.75 on May, that would put in 1/2 positive to try and get some change and possibly a better retracement from the January USDA report.  Some cocern cropping about about heavy rains in Argentina, however this is also giving anticipation of a large Argentine soybean crop.

In grains be very cautious about thinking we are going to see price highs similar to last year ( hopefully I am wrong).  If you want to let it run maybe some cheap puts just in case this run in grains loses steam faster than you think.

Hogs, fat cattle and feeder cattle all holding general uptrend together.  Hogs have only 1/2 positive so don’t go running to the bank just yet.  Cattle and Feeders down some on the day but nothing has hurt upside in those price behavior charts yet.

USDA cold storage slightly friendly going into tonight and Tuesday’s trade.  Fat cattle down a bit off of Cattle on Feed report this past Friday.

Dairy - May on out milk futures under pressure, following weaker cheese prices. Of all the agricultural charts milk is the one which I think has the most downside vulnerability.

Better sign Happy Birthday to Brendan before the day runs out.

Patrick Sullivan|
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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