Seems like this was the longest week of the year, especially if you look at it from the standpoint of the U.S. stock market, as I type this only up 11 on the day, is everyone on vacation?
Grains more movement but trade seemed quiet in this sector overall also, other than some pretty good pressure on soybeans this week. Corn put in 1/2 negatives this week, maybe next week will tell us if corn can resume its uptrend, although it has quite a way to go over head to undo this weeks 1/2 negative to uptrend started in February. I would still be more agressive about protecting against lower prices. At the very least cheap puts will still make sense next week as they did this week. Wheat retracing off contract lows but a lot of damage done this week odds of a resumption of earlier uptrend probably less than 15%.
Corn - some fund selling today, market just can’t shake USDA report and a whole lot of corn is available on planet earth. If May corn has some probability of recovery it would be best if the low of Feb 5, 2010 at 3.59 does not come out, December corn the level is 3.90 3/4.
Wheat - news pretty much the same everyday, “there is enough wheat in the world”. Funds said to be heavily short, which can mean some sharp up days possibly but most likely these would just be opportunities to sell with more managable risk. US dollar still relatively strong to other currencies making it tough to move US wheat as readily to foreign buyers. Leve to change trend even 1/2 way is about 40-45 cents above current price levels.
Soybeans - Got a little initial strength from a USDA typo of a sale of soybeans for 2009-10 and it should have been for 2010-2011, oops! Wonder if anyone at USDA will have to write a check to cover that typo? When I make typo’s placing orders ( which are extremely rare thank God!) I get practice signing my name. Crude Oil struggling putting some pressure on bean oil in terms of bio-diesel. Funds sellers on the day in the soybean complex. May soybeans inability to close above 9.26 1/2 not a good sign for upside price strength going into Sunday night trade.
Pat’s probability of overall grain price direction is down. When markets struggle this hard to go up and stay up they usually don’t have to struggle to go down. If you need downside price protection remember “Hope” is not a method.
Livestock: live cattle and feeder cattle continuing uptrend. Will these markets stay up forever?, no, but don’t think a market cannot stay up long enough until it completely breaks you if you are the wrong way. Funds large buyers on the day, not entirely surprising to me. Most funds are technical traders and what they want more than price is direction. Most of the people who are fund managers truly understand the adage of “strong things get stronger, weak things get weaker”. Cash markets not real supportive, will cash catch up to future stay tuned next week.
Hogs: still holding half positive which has been in place for over a month now. Funds similar to cattle strong buyers on the day. If 74.15 comes out that would put in a double positive and most likely bring in even more fund buying. Cash market not as strong as futures today but if it comes in stronger next week, would provide a lot of fodder for hog futures, considering they went up without a lot of news of stronger cash prices today. US dollar weakness on the day probably helping hogs hold price strength today.
Dairy - bounced off contract lows this week but still has not gone high enough to show me even a 1/2 positive against the major directional down trend going on at the moment.
Have a great weekend,
Patrick Sullivan
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.
Posted under Uncategorized

