Thursday June 24, 2010 4:46 p.m. EST

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Grains “giving up the ghost” some more today.  Soybeans backing off a decent chunk today, which I think is somewhat normal giving the recent rally that they had since the lows of June 8th.  Soybeans do have a double positive so at the moment I am wondering if a what I call a “new higher low” will evolve, will have to wake up again tomorrow and find out.  Water issues of eastern grain belt may not be out of market yet.  However, anticipated better weather in July today taking some of the weather premium out of bean market.  In spite of what I see as I technically more positive picture from a producer stand point some type of cheap put insurance probably still a good idea.  Soybean could drop quite  a bit at this point and in my opinion not be hurt from a price behavior standpoint but it could “pinch” a producers wallet pretty hard.

Soymeal has a similar type of positive patter as soybeans.  However, just as in soybeans, soymeal could drop a long way and not be hurt technically in terms of the positive behavior it has shown this week.  Bean Oil chart although it has rallied overall trend picture still remains negative to me.

Corn:  Overall price behavior trend seeming to be just to much for corn to overcome in the near term.  Eastern Corn belt still has the excessive rain issue, which market seems to be discounting.  My guess is for the too much water issue to show up it is going to be clear at harvest time in terms of yield etc.  In the mean time it is looking like corn market is not worried about the water issue.

Wheat:  basically mixed across the board between Chicago, Minneapolis and Kansas City.  Chicago wheat still has not been able to a 1/2 positive technical signal yet.   Minneapolis and KC wheat still showing uptrending price behavior.  However, they could have a decent sell off similar to soybeans and still be in an overall uptrending position.  Minneapolis maybe getting support from wheat struggles with our Canadian neighbors due to excess water etc. up there.

Livecattle: trend still down in my guesstimation.  Feeders still have momentum from 1/2 positive of a couple of weeks ago.  Hogs decent rally of lows of a few days ago, but not enough to change overall down trending position.   Not a lot of news out today.  Cash cattle overall weaker.  Cash Feeder Index a higher helping futures strength.  Hogs some profit taking on the day, trading volume was light.

Dairy:  holding together, cheese down a 1.00 on the day.  Milk market still not establishing an uptrending pattern as of yet.

Got a Sullivan kid conference, gotta go.

Patrick Sullivan
President
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
pjs@gltc.com
www.gltc.com
800.359.1435Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Market activity had me a bit backed up yesterday and thus no post.

Corn, biggest mover over the past couple of days.  Yesterday’s high was within a couple of ticks of the low from May 27th, and it looks like a lot of technical chart “hammers” got dropped on it.  Currently corn seems to be in a battle of western corn belt vs. eastern corn belt.  The eastern corn belt in several areas has been on the receiving end of the “too much water” issue.  I think the battle is, “will the areas which are struggling outweigh the good areas?”  At the moment I think the market behavior is indicating the “bears” are still in charge.  However,  I do see some tempering in the US dollar uptrend and some near term strength in crude oil, which could help to move some corn, the $64,000 question is how much corn could those factors actually move and will it be enough to offset a potentially large supply.  Bottom line, buy some cheap puts especially ahead of the June 30th USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report.

Soybeans have put in a “double positive” based on my opinion of its recent price behavior.  However, that being said one should note it could sell off from current levels quite a bit and still be in a general uptrend.  Continuing to hear of strong basis levels if one can bring processors soybeans “today”.

Wheat:  Chicago wheat overall trend still down.  KC and Minneapolis wheat charts have some positive in them at this time.

Cattle overall trend still down,  Feeder cattle;  still maintaing slight uptrend from half positive signal about a week ago.

Hogs  recent rally looking more like a retracement of downtrend, in my opinion down trend remains intact.

Remember the more important aspect of marketing is not in outguessing where the market is going to go but rather protecting yourself from where you do not want the market to go because that aspect of the market can be controlled. 

Have a good evening,
Patrick Sullivan
President
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
pjs@gltc.com
800.359.1435
www.gltc.com

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Little backed up yesterday and missed a post.  However, based on how grains have acted between yesterday and today, I think the exchange lost money “keeping the lights on” and I am not sure my comments would have brought any great wisdom to yesterday and today’s price behavior.  The “wisdom” of the market itself humble my “market wisdom” everyday.

Soybeans still in 1/2 positive position put in a couple of days ago, having a hard time hanging on to strength today on the close.  In my “world” 1/2 a positive does not necessarily mean there is high odds of a trend change in place.  If you are real farmer or have real soybeans don’t take for granite that just because the market shows some decent strength it means the prevoius underlying downtrend is gone yet.

Corn:  Still looks to be in retracement mode.  Political talk about raising ethanol blend levels may be helping, as well as 1/2 positive strength in crude recently.  I realize one cannot base expectations on what you see “out your backdoor”.  However, in the summers I cycle well out into the countryside around Warsaw, Indiana and most of the corn I see, seems to look pretty darn tall and good for this time of year.

Wheat:  Decent rally in Chicago wheat and 1/2 positives in Minneapolis and Kansas City. However, situation in the Twin Cities and KC similar to soybeans is 1/2 enough to change underlying downtrend.  Wheat west of the Mississippi has positive basis for high protein levels, however 13 and under protein levels basis levels over a buck under the board.  Bottom line there is still a lot of wheat laying around the planet, so unless the market shows some major decisive upside price behavior I wonder if the downtrend is over?

Cattle:  still look to be in a retracement mode, cash cattle backing off steadily over the last week

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Market activity pretty hectic for me the last 2 1/2 days.  Because my company has the privilege of having diverse clients we have the opportunity to provide service across all markets.  Since coffee is not grown in the U.S. ( although I think we might drink the most) you may not have noticed between Friday, Monday and today I think the coffee market received too much of its own caffeine with the giant up move it made.  If you are interested in more details give me a shout.  In the meantime we will move on to what matters to the American Farmer.

Soybeans maybe starting to show that last weeks slight strength might be an indication of the trend trying to change.  I did get a 1/2 positive on July soybeans yesterday and 1/2 positive on November soybeans today.  Typically I like to have two positive signals in a row and to this point that still hasn’t happened so I am still a “Doubting Thomas” that the overall soybean trend has turned from down to up.

Corn still does not have me convinced that the down trend has changed in a major way yet and the same is true for Wheat.  The difficulty in both these markets for me to see even 1/2  a positive the markets would have to go substantially higher and  whole lot of money can be under “the bridge” by that time.  If you need overhead protection if your processing corn and wheat some cheap short term calls may be in order.  Farmers don’t get to complacent with the degree of strength wheat and corn are showing “trust but verify” which can be translated into buy some cheap puts, forward sell a little cash etc.

Livestock:  Fat cattle rally appears to be more a of a retracement than trend change in my opinion. Wholesale beef a little stronger today, Stock Market strength also probably lending a hand.

Hogs:  Price behavior picture similar to cattle, appears to be more a of a retracement than trend change going on. Some cash strength on the helping with slight strength in front 3 months and again Stock Market strength typically helps meats psychologically.

Feeders:  getting some follow through from 1/2 positive signal which showed up on Friday, 2nd one still needs to come for me, which typically of most market activity, very similar to the military “hurry up and wait”.  Some cash feeder strength helping futures today also.  Possibly corn just treading water also a little beneficial to feeders.

Milk and cheese:  Milk holding together, but still would like to see a better uptrending pattern develop.  I am still convinced that dairyman can just walk away from this market and hope the low is in.  Cheese up 1.00 to 134.00, so that is a bit constructive.  However, with the large drop in cheese in the last month I think that a “yellow flag” is still out on milk. 

 If you find yourself saying things like “never, surely it can’t etc.” in regards to the milk market find some cheap puts at the very least.  As I joke with clients “never and surely” are not reserved for human beings. The longer I live the more I realize that “never” and “surely” are meaningless words especially when it comes to markets.

Have a good Tuesday evening wherever you are,
Patrick Sullivan
President
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
pjs@gltc.com
www.gltc.com
800.359.1435

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.

Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Markets pretty hectic for me the past couple of days.  USDA’s dissappearance of 250 million bushels of corn was a big surprise to the market.  Maybe the low test weights ( especially in the eastern corn belt) in from last falls harvest are finally starting to make an impact.

Corn:  July held solidly on the close above 3.43 which would seem to possibly give an opportunity for some more upside push into Sunday night and Monday.  Overall however, I don’t see enough of a price pattern behavioral change yet to indicate the probability of change of trend back to the upside is in place yet. Maybe its the start of one but in the market “trust but verify” is usually a better policy than assuming something has changed because of a couple of positive days.

Soybeans: July cannot seem to close below 9.30 1/2 and I think this tends to help the whole soybean complex.  Again strong near term cash prices also helping.  However, situation is similar to corn, does one or two positive days change everything?

Wheat: comments are the same as corn and soybeans.  Nice to finally show some strength but has it really changed its downtrending pattern yet?

Cattle:  Fats continuing to show downtrend still solidly in place.

Feeders:  put in 1/2 positive yesterday, so preferably another 1/2 positive will show up in the near future and increase the odds that an uptrend is back on the table.  In the near term with the 1/2 positive to the price behavior maybe the market is finally trying to buck the downtrend.

Hogs:  Downtrend still solidly in place.

Cash hogs firmer on the day, helping futures, cash cattle weaking on the week.

Milk and Cheese:  Some strength in milk today, but still not enough for me to give up the “worry” lines in my forehead.  Cheese up 1.00 on the close so a little constructive. Again cheap puts to protect the bottom till this darn milk market gives validation to itself probably a good idea, as I said above “trust but verify”.

Have a good weekend,
Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
pjs@gltc.com
www.gltc.com
800.359.1435

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Market once again illustrates I am just a mere human who did not make myself and am destined like the rest of humanity to merely speculate on the “going on’s” in the world around me and realize the only reality which never changes is God.  In any case soybeans had some strength today which surprised me based on yesterday’s price behavior. However, in spite of today’s strength I still do not trust the trend has changed back up yet.  Near term tight cash supplies underlying July today.  Some local bids here in the Warsaw area currently well over the November contract for anyone who can bring in soybeans pretty quick.

Crop report out tomorrow but I would be surprised at any significant information other, than if it should supplies going down.  With the US dollar so strong it would be hard to see how we can export as much but as I said above I have to sit here everyday so I may get surprised.

Corn:  July holding above 3.35 still helping boost it a little bit.  Maybe getting some strength from crude oil.

Wheat: new lows, trend solidly down.

Livestock: Hogs retracing, cattle down staying in downtrend, feeders a little strength but no change in trend.

Milk and cheese:  Milk steady, cheese pretty good slide down 2.25 to 132.75, that typically is not a good sign for milk.

Have a good evening,
Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435
pjs@gltc.com
www.gltc.com

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures

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Grains picture still the same as my comments yesterday relatively speaking. 

Corn:  July’s ability to close above 3.35 probably gives a little boost and maybe for a chance of retracing a bit of the current downtrend.  Even if July corn can rally it still would have to go a heck of a lot higher to change trend back to up.  Most likely a corn rally will provide opportunities for protecting a better price etc.

Soybeans taking out 9.27 1/2 is weak.  Managing to close above 9.30 1/2 may provide slight bounce up, but again I would trust very little upside moves to really stick in a big and change the major underlying downtrend.

Wheat trend is down not much else to say.

U.S. and world fundamentals continue the same as they have for many weeks now, until these large U.S. issues and worldwide issues seem to get some solid logical problem solving going on it is hard to see how overall market down trends in grain, livestock, stock, and uptrend in gold etc. will change anytime soon.

Livestock: steady to weak in cattle and hogs, same for feeders, again overall trends still down.

Dairy and cheese:  steady to down

Sorry for the late comments working on getting some of my proprietary mathematical trend probabilities out to my website.

Patrick Sullivan
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
pjs@gltc.com
800.359.1435
www.gltc.com
Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with.
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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Grain story continuing to stay generally the same:  large on hand supply,  European countries continuing to bring news stories about more financial problems,  Strong US dollar, US unemployment numbers last week indicating very slow US recovery etc., crude oil continuing to maintain downtrend.  Crop progress out and all categories ahead of overall averages.  Large current supply plus generally weak demand worldwide plus anticipated coming large crop = lower prices.

I am hearing some talk of the La Nina/La Nino weather issue being raised in various conversations around the country.  Would not be surprising if grains might bounce a bit maybe on the psychology of a weather issue perceived or real going into July.  However, I would be very surprised to see a rally turn the current grain market trend from down to up.

Livestock:  Not much new to say since Friday’s “ponder”, livestock trend is down across all categories. Larger current supplies of cash cattle look to be coming to market.  Cash hogs struggling also, some talk plants are full for the week for hog slaughter.  Feeders again not as weak but still remain in an overall weak market tone.

Milk and cheese:  unchanged to slightly weaker.  I still don’t trust milk price.  Milk had a chance to prove itself very well to the upside a few weeks ago and didn’t follow through.  One of my mantra’s ” if the price of something is so strong what’s it doing down here”.

Remember markets won’t stay down forever, but I will say what I say when Great Lakes clients ask “how long can it stay down” my standard answer is “till your broke”.  Don’t allow the market to put you in a complete guessing position regarding the marketing of your crop, livestock, milk, etc., determine what market protection work best for you and put them into action.  You cannot get a crop if you don’t actually put the seed in the ground.

Have a good evening,
Patrick Sullivan
President
Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc.
800.359.1435
pjs@gltc.com
www.gltc.com

Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments contained in these materials are not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any of the commodities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future performance results. Opinions expressed herein are the options of the author only and not the opinion of any firm the author may be affiliated or associated with. Great Lakes Trading Co., Inc. (GLTC) is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker registered under United States Laws. GLTC makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on futures.

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